Australia grew +9.9% last year. Perth ran +22%. Sydney went backwards. One number hid five different markets. RiskProperty is macro intelligence for the Australian property market — the structural forces behind the divergence, read one corridor at a time.
This divergence isn't cyclical. It's three structural forces pulling in opposite directions — concentrated migration, geographic supply shortages, and an affordability ceiling that binds unevenly.
A shipping lane 11,000km away just repriced your borrowing capacity. Brent crude above $102 forced the RBA to hike to 4.10% in March, and every 25bp wipes ~$36,000 off a median Sydney borrowing capacity.
Between a 4.10% cash rate today and Westpac's 4.85% peak forecast, a median Sydney borrower loses ~$108,000 of borrowing capacity. That's two suburb tiers, erased by a shipping lane.
Three markets, three playbooks: Perth and Brisbane are growth corridors. Melbourne is hold-and-monitor. Sydney carries elevated risk.